Accuracy of results of system reliability test with minimum sample size improved with Bayes' method

By introducing Bayes' method, this paper succeed in improving the accuracy of the results of reliability test with minimum sample size. Bayes' method can make use of prior information, it includes: (1) life distributions of similar systems; (2) life distributions of factory-produced components; (3) life distributions of installed components obtained from records of operational failures of these components. The authors give an example of a series system and show that the introduction of Bayes' method gives quite good reliability estimates. The authors believe that Bayes' method is equally applicable to parallel systems and series-and-parallel systems.