Probabilistic method for vulnerability assessment of civilian aircraft to onboard explosion

Airport security and aircraft safety have increased our attention to the problem of aircraft vulnerability assessment when subjected to internal explosion. The focus of this paper is to explore ways in which probabilistic method can be applied to aircraft vulnerability assessment in order to get the probability of kill given a blast (P_k/b,)- A simplified fuselage analytical model similar to that of Boeing 707-300 was established by assuming the loaded fuselage acts like a cylindrical membrane. Uncertainties in material properties, geometric dimensions due to manufacturing tolerance and the type of environment to which the mechanical system is exposed constitute the indeterministic nature of the aircraft vulnerability assessment. In an effort to take into account of these undeterministic variations in a more qualitative fashion, we developed a statistics-based probabilistic approach by using the statistical characteristics of the input quantities in the analysis to provide a more realistic and reliable vulnerability assessment. PETN explosive charges varying from 500g to 1400g were used to generate the blast wave. Aircraft flight altitudes from 500om to 14,000m were chosen to give a series of P _k/b curves. These graphs are useful as design guidance for new fuselage designs and modification of existing fuselage to enhance their survivability against internal explosives. In sum, this research represents a first attempt at quantitatively assessing the vulnerability of commercial aircraft structure subjected to onboard explosions in an effort to enhance the overall safety of the traveling public. It is recommended that more efforts be required in order to obtain a good assessment of commercial aircraft to internal explosion.