TY - JOUR
T1 - Early warning and basin stability in a stochastic vegetation-water dynamical system
AU - Zhang, Hongxia
AU - Xu, Wei
AU - Lei, Youming
AU - Qiao, Yan
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2019
PY - 2019/10
Y1 - 2019/10
N2 - The dynamical evolution of a vegetation-water system subjected to Gaussian noise disturbance is explored. With regard to the regime shift of the stationary response of the system, the early warning signal can be detected by the maximum of the stationary probability density function. And for the transient response of the bistable system, the basin stability is investigated by two different deterministic quantities, the first escape probability and the mean first exit time. Firstly, the stochastic system with two variable is translated into the Itô stochastic differential equation to derive the analytical expression of the first escape probability and the mean first exit time with different Balayage-Dirichlet exterior boundary condition. Then, the two indexes are calculated by the finite difference method, respectively. The results, compared with the ones through Monte Carlo simulations, shows that the proposed method works very well. It turns out that the increase of noise intensity induces advance of the early warning and decreases basin stability of the vegetation-water system.
AB - The dynamical evolution of a vegetation-water system subjected to Gaussian noise disturbance is explored. With regard to the regime shift of the stationary response of the system, the early warning signal can be detected by the maximum of the stationary probability density function. And for the transient response of the bistable system, the basin stability is investigated by two different deterministic quantities, the first escape probability and the mean first exit time. Firstly, the stochastic system with two variable is translated into the Itô stochastic differential equation to derive the analytical expression of the first escape probability and the mean first exit time with different Balayage-Dirichlet exterior boundary condition. Then, the two indexes are calculated by the finite difference method, respectively. The results, compared with the ones through Monte Carlo simulations, shows that the proposed method works very well. It turns out that the increase of noise intensity induces advance of the early warning and decreases basin stability of the vegetation-water system.
KW - Basin stability
KW - Early warning
KW - First escape probability
KW - Mean first exit time
KW - Vegetation-water dynamical system
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85065176198&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.cnsns.2019.05.001
DO - 10.1016/j.cnsns.2019.05.001
M3 - 文章
AN - SCOPUS:85065176198
SN - 1007-5704
VL - 77
SP - 258
EP - 270
JO - Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation
JF - Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation
ER -