Theory research and engineering applications on the analysis and evaluation for development risk of aircraft

The features of aircraft design determine the higher risk of aircraft design. Development risk is an important index in the program management and scheme evaluation and optimal selection of aircraft design as well as aircraft top-level design. In this paper, the basic theory on the analysis and evaluation of development risk for aircraft is investigated. Firstly, the flowchart of analysis and evaluation process on development risk is presented. Then, combining with the development project of next generation advanced combat aircraft in China, risk analysis and evaluation for the development of next generation advanced combat aircraft is investigated. The flowchart of the risk evaluation for the aircraft's development is proposed. The multi-hierarchy index system for development risk of next generation advanced combat aircraft is presented. Risk rankings are divided according to the risk matrix. By applying Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and comprehensive fuzzy evaluation method into the field of risk evaluation, a method of risk evaluation for aircraft development is proposed. Illustrated with next generation advanced combat aircraft, the process of risk evaluation for the development of next generation advanced combat aircraft is detailed described. The engineering applications for the analysis theory of risk studied in the development of aircraft product are also described.