Research and application of mechanical system reliability estimation model based on information fusion

Currently the mechanical products hold a very great proportion in the aeronautics and astronautics. The reliability testing and estimation, which can not only provide the guarantee for the equipment reliability, but also provide the basis of the equipment optimized design, is of vital significance. Based on the reliability estimation of mechanical component and comprehensive consideration of mechanical product reliability information during design, manufacture and testing process, the mechanical system reliability estimation model is presented. The model can make the most of the reliability information of product, such as history information of components, aging failure data. According to the system structure and the key failure modes, reliability diagram can be established, and the initial system reliability can be estimated and be as a priori information. Then combining with reliability testing data, the comparatively exact estimation can be received by using Bayesian theory. Lastly, an engineering example about the airplane cargo Lock machine system reliability estimation is given. The application case shows that the system reliability computation model is reasonable.