Human reliability prediction in deep-sea sampling process of the manned submersible

The sampling mission of the manned submersible is one of the important purposes of the oceanaut to enter the seabed. At the same time, it is a high-precision and high-intensity work, which is affected by many environmental and situational factors. To research the reliability of deep-sea operation of manned submersible, the Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method (CREAM) is used in this paper. First, the man-machine-environment characteristics of manned submersible are analyzed combined with the deep-diving process. Secondly, the execution process and the cognitive process of oceanauts of the deep-sea sampling mission are analyzed. Thirdly, the cognitive reliability model is constructed based on CREAM theory. Then the Common Performance Conditions (CPC) membership function of the sampling process is established, and use this function to obtain the weight factors of four cognitive functions. Finally, the improved CREAM is used to predict the overall error probability of the deep-sea sampling mission. The conclusion of this paper could provide theoretical support and reference for design optimization, mission planning, the crew training and the reliability evaluation of manned submersible.