Approach based on improved-PERT for better risk evaluation of aviation project

After analyzing relationships among aviation project risks, an idea of taking the probability of schedule risk as benchmark of project risk-level was proposed. To overcome shortcomings of classical program evaluation technology, based on improved-Program Evaluation and Review Technology (PERT), a new risk evaluation method was proposed to assess project risk. This method used the Monroe method to estimate probability-distribution of important activities and the equivalent-weight probability method to amend project duration. Then the probability of project schedule risk was computed based on probability theory, and so successfully gains the project risk-level. Finally, 04-segment assembly of some aviation project was provided as an example to demonstrate the general process of risk evaluation.