Analytic model of aircraft survivability-detection time for one-on one engagement

Considering that the time taken to detect an aircraft will affect the subsequent events such as launch, hit, and kill, a one-on-one engagement between aircraft and threat is first analyzed. Then, the probability distribution of the number of shots on an aircraft is obtained and the conditional probability that the aircraft survives with certain number of shots is proposed. Finally, an analytic formula for calculating the aircraft survival probability is derived. This analytic model explicitly represents the whole encounter process between aircraft and threat, such as target detection, acquisition and firing, and reload and firing. This model not only makes it possible to calculate the aircraft survival probability, but also plots the survivability contour maps with ease, which vary with the mean time of detection, single shot kill probability and other parameters. Numerical examples and analysis of the results show that the model is reasonable and effective.