System Resilience Assessment Based on FRAM and DBN

In a social technology system, intricate interactions and coupling relationships exist among the various components. Traditional approaches struggle to effectively assess the effects of risk factors on the overall performance effectively of the system. To address the challenge of complex system resilience assessment, a method integrating the functional resonance analysis method (FRAM) and dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) is introduced. Initially, a functional interaction model for the mission process of the system is constructed based on FRAM, and underlying risk factors are identified. Subsequently, a DBN model is established, predicated based on the interconnections among risk factors, resilience attribute nodes, and the functional state of the system. Furthermore, the resilience of the system is quantified, and pivotal factors influencing it are ascertained through sensitivity analysis. As a case study, the carrier-based aircraft take-off and landing system is evaluated to proffer recommendations for ensuring the regular operation of the system.