Multi-stage and multi-object decision making model under uncertainty

A newly defined UMM (uncertainty, multi-stage and multi-object) decision making model is illustrated based on the Bayesian network to deal with the multi-stage, multi-object decision making problem under uncertainty. The mathematic description of this decision problem is put forward at first. The definition of UMM decision model, the modeling methodology and the calculation algorithm are all described in details afterwards. With the UMM model, the decision maker could just focus on the relationships between nodes and their father nodes, which makes the model application more convenient. At last, the procedure for implementing the UMM decision model is demonstrated based on a case study of maintenance scheme decision making. With the case study, it is verified this model's effectiveness in solving the multi-stage, multi-object decision making problem under uncertainty.