Exploring wing flutter risk assessment with parametric uncertainty

Ref. 4 by C. L. Pettit studied the problem in the title without giving the probability of the occurrence of the flutter. We explore the method of calculating such probability. Section 1 of the full paper explains our method of flutter analysis, including the risk of the occurrence of flutter, which we call flutter probability for short. Its core is that we combine the traditional determinate analysis with the Monte Carlo simulation and the kernel density estimation to study these uncertain parameters, and carry out the uncertainty quantification. Section 2 gives a numerical example, whose calculated results are presented in Figs. 3, 4 and 5; Fig. 5 gives the flutter probability results when the velocity is close to the flutter point.