空间非合作目标轨道机动特征参数检测方法

A maneuver characteristic parameters detection method，based on short arc historical data，is proposed to address the challenge of accurately determining target maneuver speed and timing in existing non-cooperative target maneuver detection methods. Initially，a relative motion dynamics model and a line-of-sight angle measurement model are constructed under J2 perturbation conditions，with the chaser’s orbit coordinate system serving as the reference frame. Subsequently，a detection scheme for maneuver characteristic parameters is designed，utilizing forward and backward evolution convergence of short-arc relative orbit historical data. A solution algorithm model based on batch least squares is then established to mitigate noise effects and obtain high-precision solutions for the maneuver characteristic parameters. The proposed algorithm undergoes numerical simulation verification，along with a sensitivity analysis to key factors such as relative orbit configuration，maneuver magnitude，and measurement noise. The simulation results reveal that the mean error of maneuver speed estimation is within 0. 008 m/s，while the mean error of maneuver timing localization is within 2 seconds，with a standard deviation of no more than 14 seconds.