基于时序 Kriging 模型的襟翼机构关节轴承性能退化分析

To accurately characterize the nonlinear evolution of performance degradation in joint bearings of a flap mechanism, the time⁃series interpolated(TSI) Kriging method is proposed. The method utilizes the Kriging model to approximate the nonlinear functional relationship between wear depth and multiple input parameters at several typi⁃ cal wear time points. It uses the cubic spline curve as the interpolation model to establish the corresponding relation⁃ ship between time series and wear depth. The extrapolation and interpolation continuously predict the bearing wear state and evaluate the uncertainty at any moments under varying operating conditions. Taking the joint bearing of a flap mechanism as example, the time⁃series Kriging model set is trained and established with the finite element simulation data. The curve that predicts wear depth evolution with time is generated. The proposed method of per⁃ formance degradation analysis that characterizes wear depth is applied as example. Results show that the TSI Kriging method can more accurately characterize the nonlinear evolution of the bearing wear process than the conventional Kriging method that uses time as a direct input variable. Meanwhile, it avoids the high computational cost of full time⁃domain simulation, offering good engineering applicability and extension value for wear⁃dominant performance degradation modeling and life prediction.