Wind signal forecasting based on system identification toolbox of matlab

Wind signal (including wind speed and direction) forecasting can relieve or avoid the disadvantageous impact on wind power plants and enhance the competitive ability of wind power plants against other power plants in electricity markets. Firstly, based on the ARMA model of System Identification Toolbox of MATLAB, the method and steps of data pretreatment, correlation analyzing, parameter estimation of ARMA and deciding model order for the time series of wind speed and direction were carried out, then the result for wind signal forecasting was derived. Using ARMA model based on System Identification Toolbox of MATLAB to forecast wind signal was a novel try, and very good result was obtained from a few lines program. The result show that the ARMA model based on System Identification Toolbox of MATLAB is every valid to forecast wind signal and can reflect the future characteristics of the signal.