Survival probability analysis of aircraft under single shot

To assess the aircraft survivability quantificationally, a method for calculating the survival probability of an aircraft under single shot is proposed in the paper. Firstly, the undershoot distance that the threat mechanism hits an aircraft is analyzed; under the condition that the undershoot distance obeys normal distribution, the calculating equation of probability that the threat mechanism hits an aircraft is derived. Then the damage probability of the aircraft under single shot is calculated by a shot-line method. The survival probability of the aircraft under single shot is analyzed, and a method to calculate it is proposed. The shot velocity and mass, the ballistic terminal velocities and the kill rules of the shot to critical components are completely considered in the calculation. The proposed calculating method is helpful to the survivability analysis and design of aircraft.