Data-driven approach for uncertainty quantification and risk analysis of composite cylindrical shells for underwater vehicles

Designing underwater vehicles considering uncertainties in mechanical properties of composites is computationally expensive. In this paper, inexpensive-to-evaluate sparse polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) based on small data is employed to alleviate computational burden arising in uncertainty analysis. Experiments and finite element analysis for buckling are performed. Relative contribution of mechanical properties to critical buckling pressure is quantified. Distribution function histogram and risk of structral failure are obtained by performing Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) on inexpensive-to-evaluate sparse PCE. Mean of critical buckling pressure is 8.27 MPa, with coefficient of variation 8.59%. 95% confidence interval is 6.86 MPa–9.65 MPa.