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Communicating sentiment and outlook reverses inaction against collective risks

  • Zhen Wang
  • , Marko Jusup
  • , Hao Guo
  • , Lei Shi
  • , Sunčana Geček
  • , Madhur Anand
  • , Matjaž Perc
  • , Chris T. Bauch
  • , Jürgen Kurths
  • , Stefano Boccaletti
  • , Hans Joachim Schellnhuber
  • Institute of Science Tokyo
  • Northwestern Polytechnical University Xian
  • Yunnan University of Finance and Economics
  • Shanghai Lixin University of Accounting and Finance
  • Ruder Boskovic Institute
  • University of Guelph
  • University of Maribor
  • China Medical University Taichung
  • Complexity Science Hub Vienna
  • University of Waterloo
  • Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
  • National Research Council of Italy
  • Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

183 Scopus citations

Abstract

Collective risks permeate society, triggering social dilemmas in which working toward a common goal is impeded by selfish interests. One such dilemma is mitigating runaway climate change. To study the social aspects of climate-change mitigation, we organized an experimental game and asked volunteer groups of three different sizes to invest toward a common mitigation goal. If investments reached a preset target, volunteers would avoid all consequences and convert their remaining capital into monetary payouts. In the opposite case, however, volunteers would lose all their capital with 50% probability. The dilemma was, therefore, whether to invest one’s own capital or wait for others to step in. We find that communicating sentiment and outlook helps to resolve the dilemma by a fundamental shift in investment patterns. Groups in which communication is allowed invest persistently and hardly ever give up, even when their current investment deficits are substantial. The improved investment patterns are robust to group size, although larger groups are harder to coordinate, as evidenced by their overall lower success frequencies. A clustering algorithm reveals three behavioral types and shows that communication reduces the abundance of the free-riding type. Climate-change mitigation, however, is achieved mainly by cooperator and altruist types stepping up and increasing contributions as the failure looms. Meanwhile, contributions from free riders remain flat throughout the game. This reveals that the mechanisms behind avoiding collective risks depend on an interaction between behavioral type, communication, and timing.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)17650-17655
Number of pages6
JournalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Volume117
Issue number30
DOIs
StatePublished - 28 Jul 2020

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

  1. SDG 13 - Climate Action
    SDG 13 Climate Action

Keywords

  • Climate change
  • Free riding
  • Group size
  • Negotiation
  • Social dilemma

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