装备体系可靠性概念、建模与预计方法研究

Weapon system of systems (WSoS) executes complex and diverse tasks, and its reliability directly affects the readiness and effectiveness of equipment. Traditional reliability modeling and prediction methods do not fully consider the resource sharing and information fusion characteristics between WSoS constituent system, making it difficult to meet the requirements of modern equipment systematization and clustering. Therefore, this paper provides the relative concept of WSoS reliability, and proposes a method for WSoS reliability modeling and prediction based on the generalized effective OODA (observation, orientation, decision, action) loop. Firstly, the analysis for the concepts related to systems and WSoS reliability is conducted, providing the connotation of WSoS reliability, maintainability, testability, supportability, and safety concepts. Secondly, by considering the heterogeneity and directionality of WSoS nodes, an generalized OODA network model of WSoS is established under resource and information sharing. Then, considering the random, deliberate attack failures and reconfiguration strategies of WSoS nodes and communication links, a generalized WSoS reliability modeling and prediction method based on OODA loop is proposed. Finally, the effectiveness and practicality of the above-mentioned methods are validated using an unmanned WSoS consisting of 100 hetero-geneous unmanned aerial vehicles, thereby improving the combat effectiveness of the WSoS.