空间碎片预报、监测与应对技术进展

Aiming at the orbital safety problem caused by the explosive growth of near-Earth space debris， this paper systematically reviews the research progress and current status of space debris prediction， surveillance and mitigation technologies. First， the technical characteristics and application scenarios of evolution models and engineering models are sorted out， and two types of debris prediction methods based on discrete samples and continuous density as well as their application scopes are summarized. Second， the technical principles and challenges of radar and optical observation are expounded， the research progress of space debris tracking algorithms is analyzed， and the surveillance capabilities of typical monitoring networks are introduced. Then， the collision probability assessment methods and collision avoidance maneuver strategies are discussed by category， and the advantages， disadvantages and engineering applications of active removal technologies such as drag augmentation， electrodynamic tethers， contact and non-contact methods are comprehensively summarized. Finally， combined with the current technical bottlenecks， the future development trends of space debris governance technologies are prospected from six directions： atmospheric density modeling， high-performance prediction tools， medium and small debris surveillance， high-efficiency removal technologies， response to constellation collision risks and artificial intelligence application， which provides technical reference for the sustainable utilization of the space environment.