多源数据跨国人口迁移预测

Three prediction models were constructed by using multi-source data, including linear fitting model, multiplicative component model and WTSP (with time series prediction) linear fitting model, aiming at the problem of data representativeness in the prediction of transnational migration. A linear fitting model was constructed to describe the migration rule within one year; a multiplier component model was introduced to predict the future migration pattern by using time series prediction algorithm; and a WTSP linear fitting model was proposed to predict the future trend of transnational migration by using the change of the migration pattern. Compared with the results of the three models, WTSP linear fitting model can effectively predict future migration patterns. Compared with the classical linear fitting model, the WTSP linear fitting model can reflect the law of migration pattern changing with time, and the prediction accuracy can be improved by at least 3%. Compared with the multiplier component model, the WTSP linear fitting model can present a more complete migration model and has stronger interpretability.